A “Sure Thing”

“The time of your life, eh kid?”
– Guido The Killer Pimp, Risky Business

 I sit in sportsbooks nearly every day of my life. Actually, I sit on the periphery of the sportsbook, almost every day of my life. Why? Because I don’t like to hear grown men cry. You can always tell who the crowd has, as their cheers erupt whenever their squad does something good.

Most gamblers and guessers bet favorites, thinking they cannot lose whatever game it is they are playing. And the bigger the favorite, the bigger the bet. They also combine these huge favorites into their parlays and teasers. Not only do they combine them, they use these huge favorites as their “anchor” game. An anchor is, to the gamblers and guessers, a “sure thing.”

Why is this important? Because you do don’t want to bet like everyone else.

I am frequently reminded of this concept. Take Saturday’s postponed game between the lowly Kansas City Royals, starting some guy named Keller, against Luis Severino. Gamblers and guessers bet on name recognition alone. They usually don’t bother to handicap in the slightest and don’t put much effort into even basic analysis.

Luis Severino got knocked around the three games prior to his debacle Saturday. So, to the educated sports bettor, something was amiss with his form. Oddsmakers hung a line around -400 on Severino and the Yankees, making the corresponding underdog money line around +360. That is one of the largest all-time money lines ever hung by the oddsmakers!

The gamblers and guessers saw the heavy juice and, without hesitation or looking up any statistics, got down hard on Severino, making the Yankees the anchor in all their early Saturday parlays. The Yankees were never in the game, with the Royals leading box to wire.

The rest of the day didn’t get much better for the big favorites, and favorite bettors. The Houston Astros were about -300 favorites and lost straight up to the Texas Rangers. The Astros would have been the gamblers and guessers anchor in the Saturday afternoon games.

Aside from the occasional weeping and tearing up of parlay tickets, it was quiet in the sportsbook all day long.

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Pinterest
Scroll to Top

Nullam quis risus eget urna mollis ornare vel eu leo. Aenean lacinia bibendum nulla sed 

Join our newsletter and get 20% discount
Promotion nulla vitae elit libero a pharetra augue
Skip to content