Be Careful What You Wish For

“Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.”

This saying could not be more true. It’s a variation on the old Yiddish curse: May you get what you wish for. The idea is graphically illustrated in WW Jacob’s famous short horror story, The Monkey’s Paw, in which a family whose son has been killed in a work accident wishes for him to come home, and deeply regrets it when he does, because they have failed to specify what condition, alive or dead.

The same is true in sports betting. I took an interest in the lines for the Wild Card playoff game between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies. The line opened around Cubs -132 Rockies +122. Lines fluctuate throughout the day, as money comes in on the two sides, and eventually settles on the closing line right before first pitch.

I use a website that monitors the line movement, just like in the stock market. This site has recently added DraftKings to the lineup, so now we get an idea what our friends in the East are doing. DraftKings is headquartered in Boston, MA. However, MA does not currently allow the operation of legal sportsbooks. New Jersey does…

New Jersey’s new regulations, passed in June, require mobile providers to operate through casinos and racetracks in the state that already have land-based sports book operations. For DraftKings, that partner is Atlantic City’s Resorts Casino Hotel, owned by Mohegan Gaming & Entertainment.

I compared the closing lines offered by DraftKings with the closing lines offered by Westgate, in Las Vegas, NV. The comparison is shown below:

The top line is the Total runs scored in the game, which you can bet on. We are not interested in the total for this comparison. The bottom line is the Moneyline and we ARE interested in it! DraftKings line of -148 on the favorite Chicago Cubs is a full 13 cents more expensive than the Westgate line (148 – 135 = 13). Furthermore, the moneyline on the underdog Colorado Rockies is short by 15 cents (125 – 110 = 15). So, if your only option was to wager this game at DraftKings, you were getting ripped off to the tune of 28 cents (13 + 15 = 28).

The Westgate line, above, is called a “Dime Line” because there is 10 cents difference between the favorite moneyline -135 and the underdog moneyline of +125.

I don’t know what to call the DraftKings moneylines difference of 38 cents, but let’s go with RIPOFF.

It is hard enough making money betting sports. It is nearly impossible when you are being offered awful lines like DraftKings gave you in the Rockies / Cubs Wild Card payoff game.

Yeah, it sure is fun having action on a game, especially a game of the magnitude of the Major League Baseball Wild Card Playoff game – win and you’re in, lose and you clean out your locker. BUT, be careful what you wish for, you must shop for the best lines, and stay away from the bad ones!