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Bet with the Book!
We have a saying here at the Educational Sports Betting Network and it goes like this – Bet With The Book. Super Bowl LIII is an excellent example of this betting philosophy.
Believe it or not, oddsmakers opened the Los Angeles Rams as 1.0 point favorites. That line was immediately pounded by New England Patriot money. The line has continued to be pounded by Patriots backers, moving the point spread to Patriots -2.5, where it stands as I write this on Friday afternoon. A couple of days ago, I read an article in Gaming Today where the author stated that at some books 85% of the money was coming in on the Patriots!
Gamblers and fans look at big games, especially the Super Bowl, as entertainment, which it most definitely is. They will watch the game and want to have a little action on the game. Sportsbooks are all business and exactly the opposite of gamblers and fans. So you gotta ask yourself – with all the money bet on the Patriots, why haven’t sportsbooks moved the line to Patriots -3.0 or even higher? Wouldn’t they want to balance the money wagered on both sides and limit that huge Patriot money liability?
Oddsmakers are very good at what they do. They have all the statistics and the acumen they need to respond to the bets coming in. When the sportsbooks do not move the line to balance the action, they are taking a betting interest in one of the sides. In this case, they are taking a betting interest in the Los Angeles Rams to, at the very least, cover the spread, but most likely, also, to win the game straight up. This is the exact notion of betting against the public, as we discussed in this article.
There is still about 48 hours to go until kickoff of Super Bowl LIII. As money continues to pour in, we will be keeping a close eye on any line movement. We would expect the line to move up to 3.0. If the line ticks down to 2.0 or lower, then the oddsmakers are giving us a great big tell on what they think will happen, as discussed in our Reverse Line Movement article.
I do not see the sportsbooks even attempting to balance the money wagered on both sides.
Hence, I will Bet With The Book!