Betting on Major League Baseball is a Very Situational Thing

Last night (8/20/18), we saw limitations in action and got paid plus money to bet on those limitations. The Minnesota Twins started Stephen Gonsalves, who had never thrown a single pitch in The Show. Gonsalves surrendered four runs in just 1 1/3 innings. Considered one of the team’s top prospects, Gonsalves gave up six hits, walked two batters and hit a batter.

The 24-year-old Gonsalves is the fourth Twins starter to make his debut in the Bigs this season. The 6-foot-5 left-hander was the team’s minor league pitcher of the year in 2016. Yet he has been troubled by command issues. In 120 2/3 minor league innings this season, he gave up 65 walks.

Gonsalves may be a damn good pitcher and may have a very bright future. But this job is hard. Anytime a starting pitcher comes up from the minors for his first start, I look to fade him. This is what I mean by baseball being “situational.” It is often difficult to find value on any given day, when not much has changed but the starting pitcher in the rotation. Something like this, where a guy is making his first start and is probably very nervous, among other factors, offers tremendous value.

As I said, the starting pitcher job is hard. A guy who has been throwing in the minors has not faced the quality batters and batting he will see in the majors. Conversely, the guys who are trying to hit off him have likely spent years playing in the majors. In other words, the hitters have faced the most talented pitchers in the league. The pitcher has not faced similar quality batting.

Again, considering the situation, I bet the First Five innings of the contest, paying +140 (see the accompanying image). This was a bet based on the situational matchups. I did not bet the whole game. Gonsalves was likely to get shelled, which would give the White Sox the early lead. Gonsalves would then leave the game and the rest of the contest would be played out of the Twins bullpen. Yet, we would probably still get a few more quality innings out of Giolito, the White Sox starter. While the whole game cashed for White Sox backers, the best value was on the First Five innings play.

This angle is just as valid for starting pitchers coming back into the rotation after an injury or being on the disabled list. They tend to be rusty on their first start. But the batters they are throwing to have been in the rhythm the entire season, giving the hitters the matchup advantage.

Scroll to Top

Nullam quis risus eget urna mollis ornare vel eu leo. Aenean lacinia bibendum nulla sed 

Join our newsletter and get 20% discount
Promotion nulla vitae elit libero a pharetra augue
Skip to content