Betting Strategy: Spread & Line

When we handicap our contests and get our hard-earned money down, we want to get paid when we win. Obviously. Otherwise we wouldn’t do this. Ideally, we would like to maximize our gain through a better, more profitable betting strategy.

“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.”
– Jim Rohn

As you know, we here at ESBN prefer betting underdogs. That does not mean we don’t bet favorites, we do, but there is typically more value on underdogs. Betting underdog moneylines offers even more value.

Upsets happen all the time in college and professional sports. When handicapping a contest and finding betting value on an underdog, contemplate the likelihood of an upset. There are lots of calculators out there that show the implied likelihood of one team beating the other, based on the moneyline odds. But that’s just math – the theoretical probability, expressed in money terms, of an outcome happening. The moneyline does not express the heart or desires of the teams playing each other. And certainly does not calculate such things as Revenge Games, Sandwich Games and Look-ahead Games. No, that’s our job.

Here’s an Underdog Betting Strategy I use…

After handicapping a line and finding value in the underdog, I consider whether I like the dog to win the game straight up. This is not a guess on my part. I consider many factors, such as situational setting, revenge, coaching mismatches, wrong team being favored, and other factors. If I do like the dog to win straight up, this is how I bet it…

Bet two units on the Point Spread

Bet one-half unit on the Moneyline

As stated above, obviously, we want to get paid for our hard work! If we bet 1 unit on the point spread at -110 and 1 unit on the moneyline, we might not win anything. If we win our 1 unit point spread bet and bet the same 1 unit on the moneyline and lose, we have gained nothing, monetarily!

Let’s consider an example using real numbers…

We bet 2 units at -110 on the point spread of +3.0, for an outlay of $220. We then bet a half unit on the moneyline at +130, for a total outlay of $270. When the underdog pulls the upset – both bets cash – we are paid $420 for our spread bets and an additional $115 for our moneyline wager. We now have $535 in our hands, for a net profit of $265.

Let’s say, however, we win our point spread bet, but lose our moneyline bet. We are paid out $420 for the point spread win but lost our moneyline wager of $50. Our net profit in this example would be $150. Which is way better than breaking even!

Of course, any kind of variation of this strategy is possible and entirely reliant on your bankroll, handicapping abilities and risk tolerance. This stuff is difficult. Be sure to get paid when you get it right!