Bowl Game Analysis

The College Football Bowl Season is a substantially different handicapping exercise. There is a new set of variables we must consider, often with very little good information. Head coaches leave their teams to take jobs elsewhere, often taking much of the coaching staff with them. Star players who think they have a shot at the NFL draft decide not to play. And our old friend Motivation is often even more of a factor in these contests. So, as you handicap the games, give plenty of consideration to all of the following.

“It’s not the will to win that matters – everyone has that. It’s the will to prepare to win that matters.”
– Paul “Bear” Bryant

What is the MINDSET of the two teams playing each other?

• Is this where they wanted to be when the season started?
• Has their “story been written,” or is there more work to be done in the bowl game?
• Is this a football program on the rise – or the opposite?
  Note – think FOCUS – not just motivation

The focus – the INTENSITY in preparation is most important

• Consider SMU/Louisiana Tech last year (2017) in the Frisco Bowl. There was really no reason the Mustangs couldn’t compete, but their practices were awful because of all the distractions and they couldn’t just turn it on come game time.
• It’s usually best to avoid the distracted team

COACHING INFLUENCE

We have talked about it a lot on these pages – coaching matters!

• Will the Head Coach leave before the bowl game?
• Which Head Coaches are LIKELY to leave?
• If they leave, how much of the coaching staff will leave with them? Or find other jobs?
• How has the Head Coach prepared his team for bowl games?
• Understand, many of these contests are simply exhibition games – some coaches really stress winning – some use the bowl game as a reward or vacation. And some coaches just love the extra practices.

INTANGIBLES

• DISTRACTIONS – suspensions, rumors that a Head Coach might leave – Heisman Trophy winner – future NFL players dropping out to prepare for the draft – or playing at half-speed to protect themselves from injury.
• Do not assume a team will play hard – especially in a lesser bowl – some are just there for a good time and enjoy a free vacation.
• Injuries – may be overrated – except for the KEY guys.
• Remember the Head Coach does not have to reveal injuries.
• Crowd influence – doesn’t seem to be THAT big of a deal lately, especially in early games – larger impact later in the bowl season, especially New Year’s Day bowl games.
• Watch out though – some teams are on a really tight budget – and may be taking a really long bus trip. There’s not fun in that, after a long season!
• Weather- doesn’t seem to matter as much as before, as most bowl locations have indoor practice facilities. But watch out for extreme warm to cold, or vice versa, playing conditions. A southern Florida team may not enjoy a harsh, cold playing environment – like the Pinstripe Bowl.
• Long Layoff – Be careful with this – a strong defensive team may have a huge edge earlier in the game, over a strong offensive team. Might take some time for the strong offensive them to find their rhythm.
• Spread offensives can lose their edge as the opposing defense has much more time to prepare.

CONFERENCE INFLUENCE/COMMON OPPONENTS

Historically, some conferences dominate the other…

• Consider that Conference USA versus the MAC covers at about an 80% rate.
• B12 is terrible versus the SEC and in later key games – 30% or so BCS/playoffs.
• MAC 60% cover rate before 12/25….20% cover rate after.
• PAC-12 in early games? Awful.
• ACC has owned the PAC-12 lately.

Be on the lookout for common opponents. Two bowl teams most likely have not played each other this season, but they may have common opponents. Research how teams played against that common opponent.

MATCH-UP

As always, how does Team A matchup versus Team B?

• Here’s the KEY – can Team B DISRUPT what team A likes to do?
• Don’t forget to consider –
  • PACE
  • TURNOVERS
  • SPECIAL TEAMS
  • FIELD POSITION

BOWL BETTING STRATEGY

1. JUST BET THE WINNER
   1. Sure this is easier said than done, but the winner also covers in bowls about 90% of the time
   2. Do not forget this when doing your bowl pick-em contests – and especially when playing underdogs!
2. AVOID or FADE
   1. Average teams that FINISHED strong are just the opposite of what most bettors think. They will often revert back to their old self after a long lay-off.
   2. TURNOVER prone teams – the lay-off will not fix it!
   3. NEVER bet on a “bubble-burst” team – it is often best to just move on to the next game.
   4. The Bowl Virgin team – their GOAL of just making a bowl has been met – the bowl is more of a REWARD or VACATION.
   5. Cold weather teams – with no indoor facility – makes it difficult to stay in top condition if you can’t work outside. AND – warm weather teams – playing in cold weather
   6. The interim Head Coach with no shot at the job, on a squad where most coaches are leaving. The coaches are spending all their time looking for another job – if they wait it’s often too late.
   7. The team with the extra-long lay-off versus the team with a shorter layoff, especially if the former is an offensive team, the latter a defensive team.
   8. SENIOR heavy teams off a disappointing regular season – they often are not looking for redemption – but rather prefer to enjoy their free vacation.
   9. The Heisman Trophy winner – all the pomp and circumstance takes a ton of time away from game preparation – plus everyone telling him how awesome he is – while his opponents are sick of getting asked: how can you ever plan to stop this awesome athlete?
3. PLAY ON
   1. The “good” team EMBARRASSED in last year’s bowl game, especially if they are returning to the same bowl or will be playing close to home.
   2. The team (that seems to be) on the RISE, meaning they really need a strong win to keep the MOMENTUM going.
   3. The team with the better Quarterback.
   4. The team with the better Defense and special teams, who has the ability to leverage field position in their favor.
   5. A good team that might have finished the regular season poorly – again, this is the opposite of what most think. The key is the strong team will emerge much improved – and may offer great betting value.
   6. A senior heavy team – IF MOTIVATED. May want to avoid this team if it is playing in a lesser bowl – or a party city!
   7. The team with the interim Head Coach who the players like and want to get hired, especially if the guy has a real shot of being hired.
   8. The team from the tougher conference, which played the harder schedule.
4. FOLLOW THE LINE MOVEMENT
   1. Unlike the regular season – usually play on instead of fade. BECAUSE…
   2. ANYTIME A LINE HAS MOVED MORE THAN 4 POINTS TOWARDS A GIVEN TEAM…THAT TEAM HAS COVERED 64% OF THE TIME
      Note – for totals the cover is about 56%, since 1992.