What If I Told You…

What if I told you the 32 individual teams in the National Football League essentially operate as one? What if I told you United States Courts have determined that National Football League games are entertainment and not sporting contests? What if I told you, the National Football League is corrupt and rigged? Read more

The Only Thing Constant Is Change

I grew up in Central Indiana. I always loved college sports, especially the Indiana Hoosiers. Thus, I hated Purdue, for obvious reasons. And loathed Notre Dame, well, just because. After high school, I headed off to Indiana University, mostly to get out of the awful, dead-end town I grew up in, but also because I thought it was what I wanted to do, at the time. Read more

So Long Steve Alford

Steve Alford, head coach of the UCLA Bruins, was unceremoniously fired today (December 31, 2018). Everyone saw it coming. It’s a wonder he kept that job as long as he did. Now, the search begins and, as this article accurately states, the hard part is only now beginning.

Steve Alford was a key player in the Indiana Hoosiers winning the 1987 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship. The last championship that Coach Bob Knight brought to Indiana University. I’m a Hoosier and I remember it well! Keith Smart ultimately was the hero, but it was a team effort.

Alford went on to coach at Iowa and New Mexico, before getting that sweet gig at UCLA.

Sweet gig at UCLA…

The article I linked to above does an excellent job detailing the reasons why the UCLA gig is not so sweet afterall. Indeed, the easy part of firing Alford has been accomplished. But that is not the thrust of this article.

No, the thrust of this article is how we can prosper from the mess in Westwood. You gotta know the team is in disarray. Yet, this disarray is not limited to the team and what is left of the coaching staff. As the saying goes, “the fish stinks from the head first.” Hence, the problem goes up through the Athletic Director to the President of the University to all those moneyed and “well-meaning” boosters. They all have a dog in this fight, but that does not mean they all have the same dog.

We aren’t at all worried about Alford. He got a sweet buyout and will land on his feet. Alford’s best prospects would be to find some struggling mid-major in the State of Indiana to coach back to prominence, without all the baggage the UCLA job brought with it.

The firing of Alford likely does not right the ship any time soon, and this is what matters most. There is often a little bump seen right after the firing, with teams going through this type of problem experiencing an immediate bump in the win (cover) rate. But they typically get right back to their losing ways for the rest of the season. Looking ahead, UCLA starts its PAC-12 schedule Thursday, hosting Tree (Stanford). As of this writing, no line is yet set. But I will be looking to fade UCLA.

It is easy to get caught up in the news of the day. But if you want to be an effective and winning handicapper, you must always think in the terms of what does this mean for the betting line?

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We introduced the Wipeout Game in the Advanced Content section. We had a game last night that not only went against the team we discussed in the article, the Golden State Warriors, but the underdog won straight up. This is important for a few reasons. Read more

Winning NBA Plays

I discussed Handicapping the NBA in the Advanced Content section. This betting angle is more observation than true handicapping, but hey, whatever works is fine with me!

The play keeps rolling around and if we are observant, we can continue to cash it for the foreseeable future. All good things come to an end, and this may too, but let’s ride the wave of fading the public as long as we can. Read more

We talk a lot about doing our own work handicapping and making our own plays. But we also talk a lot about the resources we have that indicate where sharp money is being bet. There was a college hoops game on December 23, 2018 that defied all explanation, as near as I can tell. The people who bet the right side got paid. But the vast majority of money bet on this game went to Money Heaven. Yet, for the life of me, I don’t know what the sharps saw in this line. Read more