Clayton Kershaw: A Sports Handicapper’s Perspective

YEAH, I’M NOT BUYING IT

Today, we were greeted with the news that Clayton Kershaw, currently the “Ace” starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has decided to take some time off from hurling the baseball. Today is the 22nd day of February, 2019. Dodgers pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training Tuesday, February 12. That was 10 days ago and Kershaw has already blown-up his arm?

Kershaw’s record of past injuries is well known and documented, including back, shoulder and throwing arm injuries. This article provides a good general description of the pain he has faced since joining The Bigs in 2008.

I spend a lot of time on this website trying to interpret the news of the day, because much of the reporting by the reporters who cover this stuff do not bother to analyze what might be going on, much less what is really going on. The idea is, if you are going to wager on this stuff, then you better have an understanding of what is being reported and do your own digging when you read or hear something that doesn’t sound quite right. So, read this brief report.

Let me summarize, by quoting directly from the story…

In Roberts’s view, too, this is just an early pause “to just kind of step away, give him a couple days.” That said, he acknowledged that he “can’t say right now” just when Kershaw will be ready to ramp back up.

Jeff Todd, the author of the story I linked to, did sort of try to analyze this predicament for his readers, breaking it down as such –

Clearly, there’s no reason to rush to judgment about what might be going on here. Given Kershaw’s recent health history, there’s also some reason for added concern. Both men were rather circumspect about the underlying issue, declining to clarify whether Kershaw’s prior back and shoulder problems were involved. For the time being, then, we’ll just have to wait to see how things progress and await further word.

I hope Jeff doesn’t bet on this stuff.

Here is Kershaw’s page from the Baseball Reference website. Last season he started 26 games, winning 9 and losing 5. So, no decisions in the 12 remaining contests.

From a handicapping perspective, what does this tell us?

Tells me Kershaw probably blows up this season – I will be paying attention and looking to fade this former “Ace.”

Do your own work, Amigos!

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