First Half Hoops Wagering

One thing we often don’t discuss much in betting is first half lines. In sports denominated by quarters, that is also true. Many sportsbooks will hang lines on the individual quarters, in quarter denominated sports. Likewise, first half and second half lines are often available. Yet, typically, the only thing you ever hear discussed is which team will win and which team will lose and the all-important – who will cover the full game spread?

I write this article on January 5, 2019, at a point in time when the vast majority of college basketball teams have embarked upon playing their conference schedules. We were treated to some awesome matchups today – #5 Kansas traveling to Ames, IA, and getting pounded by Iowa State; #13 Kentucky traveling to Tuscaloosa, AL, and getting beat by the Crimson Tide in a thriller; and the game I’m writing about – previously undefeated #6 Nevada Wolfpack traveling to Albuquerque, NM, to face the Lobos.

There is something magical about the college basketball Home Court Advantage (HCA). In fact, up in Ames, IA, they call it “Hilton Magic.” But, maybe it’s not all that magical after all.

The one thing we all love (or should love) is that crazy things happen in college sports. We experience upsets all the time. We see, with our own eyes, college basketball powerhouses traveling and getting beat. If we recognize this phenomena for what it is, we can make money from this reality.

Let’s consider the Nevada Wolfpack at New Mexico Lobos…

I mentioned “magic” above. It’s not really magic. But, the handicapper has to “believe” the “magic” can happen. Or, in more earthly terms, we gotta believe that one team can upset the other. We gotta believe the small home favorite, or the huge home dog can really pull off the upset and get the win!

Oddsmakers opened Nevada Wolfpack as 14.5 point favorites, playing on the road in Albuquerque, NM. As near as I can tell, the game went off at the same line.

We have a couple betting angles here to consider. First, going into this contest, Nevada was unbeaten. Few teams finish the season unbeaten. My beloved Indiana Hoosiers were the last team to play an entire regular season unbeaten and win the NCAA Tournament (1976). It was an extraordinary feat that will probably never happen again.

I digress…back to the betting angles…

One thing that is so cool and potentially profitable about betting college sports is the “heart” some teams will play with. One team may look awful on paper, when comparing the matchups, but through great coaching and determination, they can rally to play the best game of their lives.

Also, consider that it is so very difficult for a team, now matter how good it is, to go undefeated. Upsets happen, all we gotta do, as bettors, is believe.

For ranked teams, upsets on “the road” are probably more likely than upsets at home. I don’t have the stats to back that up, but it stands to reason. An underdog home team can “get up” for a game much more easily because they didn’t have to travel and go through whatever aggravation and disruption travel will cause. Plus, home teams are in familiar surroundings and, probably most important, the local fans will pack the arena and cheer on their squad.

Consider that the traveling “better” team, the Nevada Wolfpack, in this case, is under a huge amount of pressure to retain their undefeated mantle. Personally, I do not think it is worth it to try to go undefeated. When they enter their opponent’s arena, they have a target on their backs and will get the best effort of the “lesser” home team.

As bettors, we are offered the usual range of options – full game, first half, second half, total and perhaps even the moneyline.

I have been watching Nevada all season. Well, actually, I’ve been watching Nevada a long time. I remember back to March Madness 2018, when the Wolfpack advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. Yet, I gotta have it in me to think they are “beatable” or at the very worst, won’t always get off to a quick start and cover the spread.

Watching and betting on college hoops for a long time has given me the insight required to think about and formulate bets that are more advantageous than others. In this case, the Wolfpack was going on the road, undefeated, to play an important conference game. Important in that this game was most likely more important to the home Lobos.

As mentioned above, undefeated, highly-ranked teams taking their show on the road have a huge target on their backs. They will always face the other team’s best effort. The question is, how long can the “inferior” team keep up the intensity? The first half – or the entire game?

My analysis was that the New Mexico Lobos could absolutely keep the fires stoked for at least the first half – so I bet it that way. The ticket posted with this article shows that I got New Mexico +8.0. Mind you, I handicapped this contest in the usual way, as described in these two posts – Handicapping Early Season College Basketball and College Hoops Strength of Schedule.

First Half Score: New Mexico Lobos 38 Nevada Wolfpack 26
Full Game Final Score: New Mexico Lobos 85 Nevada Wolfpack 58

I was quite confident the Lobos would cover the first half spread, so I bet it that way. Turns out, the Lobos played with the intensity to win the game and gave the Wolfpack its first loss of the season!

This is a thinking game. When handicapping, do not just “look at the numbers.” Consider what can happen when one team is tremendously motivated to play a particular game – and bet it with the Courage of your Convictions!