Handicapping the Army Navy Game

The Service Academies. The Best and the Brightest. You get 60 minutes of football from each of these teams. One of the absolute highlights of the college football season is the Army-Navy Game!

I have lived in Colorado since 1986, now splitting my time between CO and Nevada. In Colorado, we are fortunate to have three FBS schools playing football. My stadium of choice has always been Falcon Stadium, home to the Air Force Falcons. And my daughter is currently a student at CU-Boulder!

Service Academy football is unlike any other and the offensive style is extra special. Paul Johnson is often credited for the triple option and it is no wonder it has caught on at the Service Academies (read an excellent explanation and breakdown of this offense). Just ask Oklahoma how effective the triple option is. They went into overtime this year when they hosted Army – and nearly lost the game!

Our approach to handicapping the Army-Navy Game is the same approach we use for all college football games. Except we must consider how strong the motivation is for each team to win. This is about football, but it is also about tradition and the desire to be your best and do your best. Probably a hard thing to understand by a lot of people, these days.

The Army-Navy Game is the last game in the Commander-In-Chief Trophy series, played among Air Force, Army and Navy. In recent years Air Force and Navy have been the winners, but Army has been coming on strong!

Let’s take a look at this season’s standings among the Service Academies. Air Force pounded Navy 35 to 7 back on October 16. Air Force traveled to West Point November 3, and played a close one, losing to the Cadets 14 -17. If Army beats Navy, Army hoists the Commander-in-Chief Trophy…Motivation!

Sagarin Ratings have Army rated nearly 13 points better than Navy, suggesting a 13 point victory for Army. The oddsmakers currently have the line Army -7.0. The game is being played in Philadelphia, PA, at the stadium where the Philadelphia Eagles play, which is considered a neutral field, as it is nearly equidistant between West Point and Annapolis.

A 7.0 point line when Army should be favored by 13 points? What’s going on here?

Motivation

Let’s take a look at recent history in this series:

• 2017 Army won 14 – 13
• 2016 Army won 21 – 17
• 2015 Navy won 21 – 17
• 2014 Navy won 17 – 10
• 2013 Navy won 34 – 7

One thing that should be clear is these squads play each other close, most of the time. The total opened at 44.0 and, as I write this, has come down to 40.0. Recent history tells us why.

This helps to explain why the line has had 6.0 points cut from it.

Weather at game time is forecast to be Sunny and clear, with a high temperature around 37F.

We could look up a whole bunch of statistics that might tell us a little more about this matchup, but this is one of the times I go with my gut. Both teams will play their hearts out, leave it all on the field and I like Army to win straight up. But Navy covers the 7.0 point spread. Even though the total has come down 4.0 points, the Under 40.0 should also be a solid play.

The Best and the Brightest will be on display Saturday – and they will have my full attention!