Handicapping the NBA

Please note – in this article I use the terms “oddsmakers” and “sportsbooks” interchangeably.

Handicapping professional sports, especially NBA and NFL are kind of a misnomer. The lines are typically very sharp and are often devised to get bettors on the wrong side. I don’t spend much time, at all, on personnel, coaching and other matters during the regular season. But, that does not mean I don’t bet the NBA!

If you have been around sports handicapping and wagering for anytime, you have likely heard about public bets and fading the public. But you have probably not heard “How To” fade the public. Well, here’s your opportunity to develop an extremely valuable tool to do just that – fade the public.

Remember the Number One Gambling Fallacy? If not, go back and read this Advanced Content blog article. It might also be helpful to go back and reread the Advanced Content blog post on Reverse Line Movement (RLM). While this article considered RLM in a specific baseball game, the concept is the same. Here is our opportunity to implement the next Key to the Kingdom and actually fade the public on NBA spreads and make money.

I still get my NBA betting information from SportsInsights. I scan the games looking for a discrepancy in the amount of spread bets, preferring to focus on spread bet discrepancies greater than a 60% / 40% split. When Betting Against the Public, the larger the discrepancy in spread bets and the amount of money bet, the more money the sportsbooks stand to make – and we want to bet with the books!

Next, I look for Reverse Line Movement. Specifically, what I am looking for is a situation (or situations) where there is a greater than 60% amount of spread bets on the favorite (or less than 40% amount of spread bets on the underdog) COMBINED with RLM. SportsInsights shows us where the Line Opened. It also tracks the Line Movement that occurs throughout the day, up to tip-off. RLM occurs when sportsbooks move the line DOWN, instead of up, or in the Reverse direction of what you would expect.

Oddsmakers are very good at their jobs. They rarely hang “bad” lines. It is the oddsmakers job to get the majority of gamblers on the wrong side of the line, so the oddsmakers can make more money for their employers!

Ask yourself this: Why would the oddsmakers move the line DOWN when they should move the line UP to get more money on the other side and square the sides to get 50% of the money on the favorite and 50% of the money on the underdog?

Remember, many gamblers believe the fallacy that the sportsbook’s only interest is balancing the line and making money solely on the collected vigorish. We know that conventional wisdom is wrong and here is the confirmation – in action! In many cases RLM indicates a sharp bettor has recognized the underdog will cover (or win the game straight up) and has made a very sizeable wager.

Oddsmakers are not typically worried about all the public action they have taken on a side, but most certainly notice when a respected bettor fires his money into the pot. Remember, much of this money is bet online and in-person at sportsbooks. The sportsbooks know their patrons and know who is a respected sharp bettor. When sharp bettors make plays, I promise you, the book is paying close attention!

Because I am writing this article at a moment in time, any actual game information I provide would be “stale” by the time you read it. Stale because by the time you read this, the game will have concluded. However, I will provide a real world example that occurred last night (10/24/2018):

The San Antonio Spurs (Rotation Number 514) were opened as 2.0 point home favorites versus the Indiana Pacers (Rotation Number 513). At time of tip-off, the line closed at many books, with the Spurs as 1.5 point favorites, garnering 67% of the spread bets. Conversely, the Pacers opened as 2.0 point dogs and closed as 1.5 point dogs with only 33% of the spread bets. Why in the world would the oddsmakers move the spread DOWN a half-point when only 33% of the bets were on the dog? Standard line movement would dictate they move the line UP to get more money bet on the Pacers! The REVERSE of this is what actually happened. Final score: Pacers 116 Spurs 96.

BAM! That is how you make money at this! I have attached my winning ticket as proof I made the play.

Note that I made this wager at Sam’s Town in Las Vegas, NV. At the time I made the wager, the line was still 2.0. The 1.5 point lines popped up on SportsInsights at many of the books it tracks, including the Westgate, here in Las Vegas. I made the bet before Boyd Gaming (owner of Sam’s Town) adjusted its line for the game.

Please note, I am not saying this is crooked and somehow the game was “fixed,” I’m simply stating the oddsmakers are very good at doing their jobs getting gamblers to bet the wrong side of the game. We bet with the book and won our bet.