Handicapping the College Football National Championship Game

OUR ANALYSIS ON WHO TO BET ON

Alright, once again, the College Football National Championship Game comes down to a contest between #1 Alabama Crimson Tide and #2 Clemson Tigers. This is the third time in the last four years we have been offered this contest. It seems some people are yawning about this matchup, as dissected in this piece on Yahoo Sports. But I’m a college football nut and mostly don’t care which teams are playing each other.

We covered handicapping college football in the Advanced Content section and we also discussed the notion of Single Elimination Contests. This contest qualifies as a Single Elimination Game. Win and you are national champs…lose and you aren’t!

From a handicapping perspective, not much has really changed in our approach. We must still evaluate the two teams playing each other with the same formula we have used in other college football contests. We must always consider motivation when handicapping any contest, especially college football bowl games. Be sure, however, both Alabama and Clemson have the exact same motivation to win.

Prior to the playoff matchups, we got news that both Alabama and Clemson would be playing these contests without a few of their players. These two squads are so deep that the #2s and #3s (second and third string players) are not much of a drop off from the other team’s first string (#1s) players, so there is usually very little or no effect to the betting lines. The only factor that tends to be relevant is experience. In other words, unless something happens to the starting quarterbacks, or the head coaches, don’t worry about line movement, when a player or players can’t go.

The line was first opened online at some outfit called Betonline. From what I hear, they opened Alabama as 9.0 point favorites, at very low limits. That line was bet into quickly and came down to -6.5-ish. The first line I saw in Las Vegas was Alabama -6.5, which was quickly bet down to -6.0. As I write this, most of the market seems to have settled at Tide -5.5.

Very briefly, these are the relative rankings and ratings for each team:

Football OutsidersDefense RankOffense RankSpecial TeamsOverall Rating
Alabama1229329.6
Clemson159928.6

Pretty damn even, huh?

Sagarin RatingRatingWLStrength of Schedule
1 AlabamaA = 103.2814075.03 (28)
2 ClemsonA = 101.4114073.67 (45)

Hmmm…still pretty damn even.

The contest is being played in Santa Clara, CA, in the stadium where the San Francisco 49ers play their home games. The weather is currently forecast to be…

Monday
A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 60.

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46

Weather could be a little funky, but that should affect both teams evenly.

Playing Surface – Both teams play in home stadiums that have a natural grass field. Looking at their schedules, both teams have played the vast majority of their games on grass fields. The playing surface in Santa Clara is likewise a natural grass field. This factor will give neither team an advantage or disadvantage.

What’s the public perception of the two teams playing? Probably the best way to gauge this is to follow the money. As of this writing, it looks like 45% of the money bet on the point spread is on Clemson.

Is there a Head Coaching angle to consider here? I don’t think so. Both of these head coaches have been here before and know what they are doing. Likewise, the coaching staffs know what they are doing and will be prepared.

Here’s the Injury Report, updated as I wrote this story:

I was just watching the talking heads on ESPN blathering on, again, about Tua’s surgically repaired ankle – Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Tua is not on the injury list at this time and both teams look pretty healthy. As mentioned above, these teams are deep and will have competent substitutes if called upon. Remember, Jalen Hurts won the game for The Tide in the SEC Championship game against Georgia.

Since we are talking about quarterbacks, the one problem I see is if Trevor Lawrence, the Clemson QB, gets hurt and can’t play the rest of the game. But, that is a factor we really cannot handicap for, so I will hope he plays the entire game.

What’s the Line telling us? The line opened for the masses to bet around Alabama -6.5. Depending on where you are shopping lines, I am seeing some lines at 5.5 and even some line movement down to 5.0. This is not an absolutely clear indication of Reverse Line Movement, but it certainly does infer the sharper money has been bet, thus far, on the Clemson Tigers. This could change as we get closer to game time. My experience is money will continue to come in on Clemson, likely moving the line down even more. We might even see a line of Alabama -3.5 just prior to kickoff.

Based on what we know about these two teams, they sure look mighty even. If I can bet one of these squads and GET points, that’s what I’m doing…Go Clemson Tigers!!!

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