March Madness Update

Believe it or not, we are about a quarter of the way through the regular season college basketball schedule, so this is a great time to check in with our March Madness futures and see if we need to take any action. I previously wrote about this strategy in this post in the Advanced Content section. Also, our boy Joe Lunardi just updated his brackets, which gives us additional insight into what another expert thinks. Remember, I don’t necessarily expect to cash any of these futures. But, as long as I have live tickets, I can hedge against the expected win amounts. Without further ado…

100 to 1 Teams Current Record 12/2/18 Future Odds* Lunardi Bracketology**
Arizona 6 W 2 L 400 to 1 Nope
Louisville 5 W 2 L 300 to 1 Next Four Out
Kansas State 6 W 1 L 60 to 1 3 seed in the West
Maryland 7 W 1 L 175 to 1 7 seed in the East
North Carolina State 7 W 1 L 125 to 1 10 seed in the East
Xavier 5 W 3 L 400 to 1 Nope

 

125 to 1 Teams Current Record 12/2/18 Future Odds* Lunardi Bracketology**
Butler 5 W 2 L 250 to 1 9 seed in the South
Memphis 3 W 4 L 750 to 1 Nope
Seton Hall 4 W 3 L 750 to 1 Next Four Out
TCU 5 W 1 L 300 to 1 First Four Out

 

250 to 1 Teams Current Record 12/2/18 Future Odds* Lunardi Bracketology**
Houston 6 W 0 L 125 to 1 9 seed in the East
Minnesota 6 W 1 L 250 to 1 Last Four In

 

300 to 1 Teams Current Record 12/2/18 Future Odds* Lunardi Bracketology**
Connecticut 6 W 2 L 750 to 1 Nope
Iowa State 6 W 1 L 125 to 1 6 seed in the East
Loyola Chicago 5 W 3 L 1000 to 1 12 seed in the West
Nebraska 6 W 1 L 150 to 1 6 seed in the West
South Carolina 4 W 3 L 500 to 1 Nope

 

500 to 1 Teams Current Record 12/2/18 Future Odds* Lunardi Bracketology**
Davidson 7 W 1 L 750 to 1 12 seed in the Midwest

 

1000 to 1 Teams Current Record 12/2/18 Future Odds* Lunardi Bracketology**
Buffalo 7 W 0 L 75 to 1 6 seed in the Midwest
Old Dominion 5 W 3 L 1500 to 1 Nope

Okay, out of 20 futures, only six teams are currently projected to not make the tournament. I’m not really considering the Last Four In and Next Four Out teams as being definitely out – let’s just say for now they are on the bubble of the bubble. I need to keep an eye on these teams and consider looking for opportunities to bet against the future wagers I made. We still have a long way to go and changes will occur in the brackets. In the case of Arizona, Lunardi may have it wrong as, according to PAC 12 power ratings, they lead the conference. Is there a post-season ban that I am not aware of?

My future wager on Old Dominion had everything to do with this squad getting an automatic bid by virtue of winning its conference tournament. Conference play has not yet started in Conference USA, but ODU is currently rated and ranked second behind Western Kentucky (which would be a 12 Seed in the South, current odds of 500 to 1 to win the NCAA tournament). Let’s just see what happens with the Monarchs in conference play.

Now, take a look at Buffalo! I have a future on this squad at 1000 to 1. The Bulls are currently undefeated and lead the MAC. Is it possible Buffalo is this tournament’s version of Nevada or Loyola-Chicago, which both made the Final Four last year?

Stay tuned…

*Odds from William Hill as of 12/02/2018
**Joe Lunardi Bracketology Updated 11/29/2018