March Madness Update

Believe it or not, we are about a quarter of the way through the regular season college basketball schedule, so this is a great time to check in with our March Madness futures and see if we need to take any action. I previously wrote about this strategy in this post in the Advanced Content section. Also, our boy Joe Lunardi just updated his brackets, which gives us additional insight into what another expert thinks. Remember, I don’t necessarily expect to cash any of these futures. But, as long as I have live tickets, I can hedge against the expected win amounts. Without further ado…

100 to 1 TeamsCurrent Record12/2/18 Future Odds*Lunardi Bracketology**
Arizona6 W 2 L400 to 1Nope
Louisville5 W 2 L300 to 1Next Four Out
Kansas State6 W 1 L60 to 13 seed in the West
Maryland7 W 1 L175 to 17 seed in the East
North Carolina State7 W 1 L125 to 110 seed in the East
Xavier5 W 3 L400 to 1Nope

 

125 to 1 TeamsCurrent Record12/2/18 Future Odds*Lunardi Bracketology**
Butler5 W 2 L250 to 19 seed in the South
Memphis3 W 4 L750 to 1Nope
Seton Hall4 W 3 L750 to 1Next Four Out
TCU5 W 1 L300 to 1First Four Out

 

250 to 1 TeamsCurrent Record12/2/18 Future Odds*Lunardi Bracketology**
Houston6 W 0 L125 to 19 seed in the East
Minnesota6 W 1 L250 to 1Last Four In

 

300 to 1 TeamsCurrent Record12/2/18 Future Odds*Lunardi Bracketology**
Connecticut6 W 2 L750 to 1Nope
Iowa State6 W 1 L125 to 16 seed in the East
Loyola Chicago5 W 3 L1000 to 112 seed in the West
Nebraska6 W 1 L150 to 16 seed in the West
South Carolina4 W 3 L500 to 1Nope

 

500 to 1 TeamsCurrent Record12/2/18 Future Odds*Lunardi Bracketology**
Davidson7 W 1 L750 to 112 seed in the Midwest

 

1000 to 1 TeamsCurrent Record12/2/18 Future Odds*Lunardi Bracketology**
Buffalo7 W 0 L75 to 16 seed in the Midwest
Old Dominion5 W 3 L1500 to 1Nope

Okay, out of 20 futures, only six teams are currently projected to not make the tournament. I’m not really considering the Last Four In and Next Four Out teams as being definitely out – let’s just say for now they are on the bubble of the bubble. I need to keep an eye on these teams and consider looking for opportunities to bet against the future wagers I made. We still have a long way to go and changes will occur in the brackets. In the case of Arizona, Lunardi may have it wrong as, according to PAC 12 power ratings, they lead the conference. Is there a post-season ban that I am not aware of?

My future wager on Old Dominion had everything to do with this squad getting an automatic bid by virtue of winning its conference tournament. Conference play has not yet started in Conference USA, but ODU is currently rated and ranked second behind Western Kentucky (which would be a 12 Seed in the South, current odds of 500 to 1 to win the NCAA tournament). Let’s just see what happens with the Monarchs in conference play.

Now, take a look at Buffalo! I have a future on this squad at 1000 to 1. The Bulls are currently undefeated and lead the MAC. Is it possible Buffalo is this tournament’s version of Nevada or Loyola-Chicago, which both made the Final Four last year?

Stay tuned…

*Odds from William Hill as of 12/02/2018
**Joe Lunardi Bracketology Updated 11/29/2018

 

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