I don’t care about the situation. I don’t care about the teams playing. I don’t care about the pitchers and I don’t care about what you think. I don’t care what your tout told you – or what your tout sold you. Never ever bet the -1.5 runline on the Home Team. Not even if you can get +300 on the -1.5 runline.
Never Ever Ever.
Why? Because, in baseball, what matters is winning the game. What does not matter is the margin of victory. In baseball, style points are never awarded for the margin of victory.
And here is why you never ever lay -1.5 runs – the home team always bats last. Always. And the only thing that matters is winning the game. The visiting team always bats first. The visiting team bats first in the first inning and bats first in the ninth inning. If the home team is leading by a single run, after the visiting team bats in the top of the ninth…
The Game Is Over
The home team will not bat, no matter what, if the home team has the lead after the visiting team has had its opportunity at the plate in the top of the ninth inning. Therefore, if the home team is ahead by a single run – at the midpoint of the ninth inning of the game – the game is Over. Both teams walk off the field, shower, do their obligatory press conference appearances, then go to the bar.
There is no way you will ever eclipse the -1.5 runline and win by the required 2.0 runs. You cannot buy the runline hook and get that runline down from -1.5 to -1.0, for a potential push. The sportsbooks know this and that is WHY the runline is always set at +/-1.5. Some books may offer alternative runlines, which may be betable. But that is not the focus of this message.
This fact of betting runlines in baseball is not only good advice, but it is both a law of math and a law of betting Major League Baseball.
And I see people violate this Law every single day. Don’t be one of those people.