Total Betting Opportunity

OPPORTUNITY IS WHERE YOU FIND IT

We have spilled a lot of ink on these pages concerning how we can find advantages using freely available data on the interwebs. The trick is utilizing this data to create an advantage that will be profitable to us. There is a term in data analysis that goes – Garbage In Garbage Out (GIGO). Or, in other words, at what point have we considered the most relevant data, which enables us to disregard other data, or simply stop our research? And, at what point have we considered too much data?

Sharps have their own databases, which have been constructed over a lengthy period of time and cost many thousands of dollars – or more – to compile. The beauty of the interwebs is that there is an enormous amount of data at our disposal, for very little cost – or for free! The problem for those of us who don’t have the deep pockets for data retention and analyses is what is important and what isn’t? What results in Garbage In and what produces Garbage Out? And, how do we use information effectively and profitably?

In this life, there are few things more enjoyable than making money from the efficient use of information
– Eric McCafferty

We have not spent much time on these pages discussing Totals and how to bet them. Whether we take the over or under or whether we disregard the total altogether and simply move on to another wager. Yet, there are resources at our fingertips we have been using all along to give us an indication of which way to go.

As you readers know, I use Sagarin Ratings as part of my handicapping analyses of point spreads and totals. Point spreads rarely vary by more than a point or two between Sagarin Ratings and the spread offered by sportsbooks. However, totals may vary substantially between what Sagarin says and what the sportsbook is offering.

Think about that for a moment…Points spreads are almost always right on, but totals may be way off. Seems there may be some value on betting the discrepancy between totals, when we identify an advantage.

Let’s consider a real world example of a college hoops contest that was played today, December 31, 2018. The Northern Colorado Bears traveled to play the Portland State Vikings, with the opening Total set at 155.5 points. Immediately, without doing any analysis, that total seemed high.

As we have discussed before, Sagarin Ratings offer predictions on the final margin of the contest AND the total. In this specific case, Sagarin set the total at 148.68:

The sportsbooks opened the total at 155.5. That is a huge discrepancy – one worth investigating.

I have noted in other articles that sportsbooks often seem to post point spreads and totals very close to what KenPom projects. In this contest, KenPom suggested the total as:

Hence, the KenPom total was 157 (80 + 77), pretty close to the oddsmakers line, but about 8 points greater (higher) than the Sagarin projected total.

The oddsmakers total opened at 155.5 and moved UP to 162.5, which is where I bet it  – see the photo posted with this article.

How did we get here?

This is where the power of your personal handicapping comes into play. Take a look at the respective schedules of the teams playing each other. You have heard me proclaim the importance of Strength of Schedule (SOS), and here is another area where it comes into play.

What happened here is the oddsmakers were giving Portland State (both teams when considering the Total) too much credit for playing a relatively weak SOS.

I realize Sagarin suggests Portland State played the more difficult schedule. However, the total for this game was set based on the average Portland State score compiled from the entire schedule.

Here is the Portland State schedule (compiled from KenPom) up to the point they played Northern Colorado:

Note that Portland State played three D-2 programs, scoring 125 (Willamette), 91 (Northwest Nazarene) and 123 (Portland Bible) respectively, against these programs. These results are reported in the overall average scores.

Here is the Northern Colorado schedule up to the point they played Portland State:

Note that Northern Colorado crushed their D-2 opponents just as Portland State did their opponents, scoring 126 against Colorado College and 118 against Johnson & Wales.

These scores effectively drag up the average scores for both teams, hence inflating the overall totals. Competition against D-2 schools must be entirely disregarded when evaluating effective scoring against D-1 schools. Other factors are likely also in effect, not the least of which this game was played on New Year’s Eve. The point remains – there is substantial value finding a discrepancy and handicapping the angle yourself to determine if the discrepancy is valid. In this case, including scores against D-2 programs distorted the season average scores of both teams. Hence, the total was way too high!

Final Score: Northern Colorado 73 Portland State 60 = 133 Total Points – much less than the Under 162.5 we bet