Wagering on Alliance of American Football

It is rare to get to see the inception of a new sporting league. This past weekend, we were treated to the inaugural games of the brand-spanking-new Alliance of American Football. Yeah, I know, I’m not fond of the name either, but no one asked me. Eight teams currently constitute the Alliance, hailing from such places as San Diego, Orlando and Atlanta. They are playing a 10-game regular season schedule. For a little more on the eight teams, you can read these articles from SB Nation and CBS Sports. And, if you are wondering why in the Wide World of Sports this League was created, this may give some clue.

NEW BEGINNINGS

That’s right sports fans – it’s all about the wagering!

I was deep in my college hoops hysteria over the weekend and barely noticed this league was beginning its regular season on Saturday. Moreover, I heard absolutely no one talking about the league, or the betting possibilities, in the sportsbooks I frequent and saw no lines posted on the boards.

What’s the big deal? Wagering, of course!

Here’s the deal – this is one of those rare times where handicappers may be on the same footing as the oddsmakers – a very rare thing, indeed! As the Business Insider article linked to above suggests, “it’s a little bit of a crapshoot” and “[n]either bettors nor Las Vegas know anything about how these teams play beyond the few players we are familiar with from their NFL or college days.”

So, let’s take a look at Week 1 results Against The Spread:

SATURDAY RESULTS

San Antonio Commanders (-2.0) 15, San Diego Fleet 6 (Total 50.5)

Orlando Apollos (-7.0) 40, Atlanta Legends 6 (Total 49.5)

SUNDAY RESULTS

Birmingham Iron (-3.0) 26, Memphis Express 0 (Total 50.0)

Arizona Hotshots (-4.0) 38, Salt Lake Stallions 22 (Total 52.0)

What I immediately notice is ALL four favorites won straight up AND covered their respective spreads. I also notice the totals were WAY too high. As you can see, only one contest went Over the posted total.

Can we forecast the future with this? Who knows? But if you want a betting angle, I will suggest continuing with this developing trend. Perhaps the favorites are not getting enough points and perhaps the totals will continue to be too high, until the oddsmakers get enough data to adjust their spreads and totals.

If you intend to bet this, be sure to do some work and not simply follow these potential trends. We have no idea if they are, in fact trends, or these final scores are aberrations because this is all so new.

But we are getting in at the beginning and maybe we can be on equal, or better, footing as the oddsmakers! At least for a little while.