Week 3 Best Bets

So, our whippin’ boy Scott Frost is gone. Ignominiously fired in the dark of the night. It was a very selfish thing for the Huskers to do. Don’t misunderstand me, it was the right thing to do, but it was selfish. Couldn’t the honchos in Lincoln have given us an entire final season of this guy? Really, seems to me they owe us that much. Here’s what another knowledgeable bettor has to say:

Scott Frost Firing Countdown:  20 Days. $15 million buyout through September, October 1st it goes to $7.5 million. Only one more chance to fade him against the Sooners as they have a bye after. Cannot see him coaching against Indiana on 10/1. What a shame, he has been a true goldmine

And probably Urban Meyer gets that gig. As the title says, we do not deserve nice things.

Who do we auto-fade now, beside David Shaw of course (checks notes), ewww…how about Bryan Harsin down in the Dirty South at Auburn? Probably the only people in the entire state of Alabama who like this guy are Roll Tide fans. I liked him at Boise State, but he’s in way over his head down here. So, stay tuned.

Penn State rolls down there as 3-point favorites this Saturday. Book it! Nittany Lions will take care of business. You know what’s going to happen, right? Auburn will take this nice thing away from us, too. Just cannot catch a break in this racket. But we can probably fade Tree the rest of our lives. So we got that going for us, which is nice.

Alright, well I picked off a few (fact check – more than a few) opening numbers Sunday night. Let’s open this Pandoras Box and see what we have…with a little commentary why I like the bet this week…

Criminoles ML -120 – I’m not quite sold on Louisville and probably UCF (Louisville’s opponent last week) is not as good as I thought they were. When I bet a favorite of -3.0-points or less, I typically bet the moneyline as that offers good value and removes the push if the game comes in on the number.

Wyoming +15.0 – Yeah, see what I had to say about that Buffaloes / Falcons disaster. This is the Mountain West Conference opener for both squads, so I love the home dog. True fact, Laramie is 7200 feet above mean sea level. Well, maybe now 7199 feet. Falcons play at an elevation of about 6000 feet, so elevation won’t be a problem here. But this stuff is good to know in other situations.

Hilltoppers +7.0 / +215 – Hoosiers are not particularly good. They were the beneficiary of quite a lot of good ol’ home cooking when they hosted Illinois. Hoosiers were shut out in the first half last week against the FCS squad Vandals and did not cover the 25-point spread. They were not in a lookahead spot. Hilltopper campus is about 3.5 hours south of Bloomington, so this is a meaningful regional matchup.

National Champs -24.5 – Spencer Rattler is the Cocks quarterback. He is in way over his head in this contest.

Penn State ML -150 – Laying the 3.0 points at -110 is the better value play, as Nittany Lions will take care of business. I just like the added insurance that comes along with betting the ML here. I have been at this a long time and have seen all kinds of things go wrong around this number of -3.0.

Gophers -26.5 – They host the trainwreck that is the Colorado Buffaloes. Row The Boat usually does not take their foot off the gas. They took care of New Mexico State 38-0 and Western Illinois 62-10. Gophers do travel to Michigan State the following week, but this seems like the feel-good beatdown of the year (full disclosure – I could be biased here as Buffaloes pissed me off).

Georgia Southern +13.0 – Took care of business in Lincoln and got our boy Scott Frost fired. We both love them and loathe them for that. This is not a letdown spot, as our beloved Eagles expected to win in Lincoln.

BYU +4.0 – We saw what the National Champs did to the Ducks. And I get the feeling BYU is on a mission. However, if the Ducks were the dog in this contest, I would likely be on the Ducks…tread carefully with this one.

Troy +13.0 – Our beloved Mountaineers took care of business down in College Station last week. But this is a classic letdown spot. It is also a conference game, so look for it to be competitive. Mountaineers likely win, but do not cover.

Bowling Green +18.0 – How much do we love the Thundering Herd? Let me count the ways! Notre Dame should never have been ranked the #8 squad in the land. But this is a huge letdown spot for the Herd after accomplishing the impossible.

Mississippi State ML -140 – So The Pirate rolls into Baton Rouge after ripping our hearts out in Tucson. Bulldogs will be ready to face a Brian Kelly-led LSU. Yeah, this guy is a fraud. Bonus bet – Take the Under 3.5 years that Kelly will be in Baton Rouge

Toledo +32.0 – The Rockets are good and are very well-coached. I don’t know what Buckeyes problem is yet on offense, but they have not covered either of their early season spreads. Might be looking ahead to their Big 14 (because there are 14 teams, duh, soon to be 16 or more) matchup with Wisconsin (fact check: Badgie sucks) .

North Texas / UNLV Under 57.0 – These two squads will combine for either 20 points or 80 points. I like it to go Under. I love the Rebels, but I don’t think I have EVER had the opportunity to bet them as a (2.5-point) favorite, and I’m not going to start now.

SMU +3.0 / +120 – Maryland beats the bad teams (Buffalo, Charlotte) and gets their shit wrecked by the good teams. Mustangs qualify as a good team here AND we are getting points!

Washington ML -127 – Huskies have taken care of business so far under their new head coach (note: serious man crush, not ashamed to admit it) and Sparty might be over-rated. Thus far, Sparty has played no team of any consequence…that changes Saturday.

This is cool.

This one too!

Grace Potter is awesome…she’s got it goin on!

Peace Out