Week 3 Recap + Week 4 Best Bets

I, um, have a realish job that pays the bills, so I was away much of this week working that gig. Just getting caught up now. Although, with last week’s results, I should by sipping margaritas from the navel of a Caribbean Island Girl. Alas, that will have to wait. Going to Costa Rica in two weeks and will be visiting the Caribbean side! Life is good brothers and sisters.

Let’s quickly take a much-deserved victory lap on last week’s absolute crushing of the books. My thesis was pretty good on most of the Action. Namely, Air Force should not have been such a huge favorite on the Mountain West road in Laramie. Our beloved Falcons lost straight up, but we had +15 beautiful, happy points on the victorious Cowboys.

Also, in a correlated fashion, the Colorado Buffaloes got crushed by the Gophers as we knew they would. Air Force will rebound. Buffaloes will not.

The absolute worst bet of the bunch was my Under on the North Texas / UNLV contest. I’m not even going to go back and figure out what happened, but most certainly got it very wrong.

Overall, our Week 3 winning percentage on posted Best Bets was 62.5%, which puts us firmly in the black for the season. But we don’t spend a lot of time looking back, we gotta look forward.

AND one of our Wipeout Games got us paid and got Herm Edwards fired! Our beloved Eastern Michigan Eagles went down to Tempe and kicked the crap out of the Sun Devils, winning 30-21. True, the other proposed Wipeout Game was a loser, but let’s do the math. We were +1.0 Unit on the Eagles spread and +0.5 Unit on the Moneyline of +900, half of which is +450, or +4.5 Units!!! So, that’s +5.5 Units – 1.5 Units on the other game, leaving us with a sweet profit of +4.0 Units! Damn it feels good to be a gangster!

Week 4 Best Bets

Alright I’m still playing catch-up and honestly don’t like a lot of Week 4 lines. But we will endeavor to persevere, so let’s get to Week 4…with a little analysis why…

324 North Carolina +2.0 – I’m not a fan of Notre Dame, no matter who is coaching. Plus, the Tar Heels play good football, and they love their head coach Mack Brown, and are playing at home. When guys want to play for their head coach, they tend to go out there and get after it. The line has moved since I bet it, so if you go after the Heels, take the short Moneyline, currently around -125. Plus, there are already grumblings in South Bend that Freeman is not “their” guy.

347 Florida +10.5 – Check out the stats and trends on this line. Volunteers have never been a double-digit favorite against the Gators. Gators are 5-0 straight up in SEC road openers, one of those wins coming in Knoxville. Volunteers have lost 16 of the last 17 meetings and in those 17 contests Vols are 5-12 ATS. Yeah, but Gators suck! I hear many of you shouting. Maybe. But I’m gonna take all those points and sit back and wait for the SEC Voodoo to happen.

357 James Madison +7.0 – Man you got to love what they are doing in Boone NC! Mountaineers are a lot of fun to watch, they love playing and are well-coached. College Gameday broadcast from Boone last week and the Mountaineers did what they do – find improbable ways to end football games. James Madison just moved up to the Fun Belt Conference from its FCS roots, this year. The Dukes haven’t played anybody even though they are 2-0. This game feels like the Ultimate Letdown Spot for a Mountaineer squad that is out of their heads delirious.

363 Miami (OH) +7.5 – Northwestern is awful. Forget what they did to the Cornhuskers. That is ancient history. MAC squads love playing Big 14 squads and will show up here. Redhawks have already faced Kentucky, losing 13-37 and Cincinnati losing 17-38. They won’t be intimidated walking onto the field in Evanston. Note the Redhawks were able to score in those games. They should be able to score in this contest too.

380 Washington State +7.0 – The ultimate disrespect! Cougars are undefeated. Two weeks ago, they traveled halfway across the country and beat the Wisconsin Badgers as 17-point dogs. And do not forget, Bo Nix is the Ducks QB. The Cougars moneyline is worth a few bucks too.

381 Arizona +3.0 – I bet it, but I won’t be watching it. Arizona is not as bad as they seem. And Cal is not particularly good. Bears went out to South Bend and gave the Domers a game, but don’t let that affect your handicap here. The line on this one should be a Pick. If Arizona QB De Laura can get his act together, they will win this contest. Taking the 3 points is value.

389 Bowling Green +31.0 – Remember the caveat I mentioned at the start of the season – The bigger the dog you are the more I love ya! But I don’t think we have to worry about my bias here. The Pirate broke our hearts when he went down to Tucson and took care of business in our first official Wipeout Game. Now he hosts the Meat of The Sandwich, between losing at LSU and next hosting Texas A&M. If you can find a fair moneyline on the Falcons, put a few bucks on it. Can’t imagine The Pirate goes all in in this contest with Aggies on deck.

391 Kansas State +12.5 – This line seems a little short. When you see that, it usually means oddsmakers are a little scared of their power ratings. Meaning, they think K State is a little better than they look. Wildcats were in a lookahead spot last week, losing to a good Tulane team. Klieman is an exceptionally good coach, and he will have the Cats ready.

397 TCU Moneyline -130 – Sonny Dykes was the head coach at SMU the last four seasons, then moved up to TCU after the ignominious dismissal of Gary Patterson. Dykes recruited much of the current Mustang squad. He will know what game plan to institute here. This is a huge rivalry game, so I’m buying some cheap insurance betting the moneyline instead of laying the points, in case the final score is closer than I think.

I have some other ideas but that is enough for now. Plus, I got shit to do to pay the bills.

Good luck with all your Action!

Peace Out