Week 8 Best Bets

Okay so since returning from Costa Rica I am a lethargic asshole – was just an asshole before. And I can’t really even tell you why. Perhaps it’s the “island” feel or perhaps my inner lazy-ass has finally come to the surface. Perhaps the feeling will fade…perhaps it will grow. We pay our money, and we take our chances. Amirite?!?!

Yet thankfully, they keep playing college football! While I was away, I didn’t make a single bet and only barely kept up on scores. I have since updated my very analog database and made a few bets. Also of note, while in CR, I made a prediction to my fellow degenerate traveling companions – sometime after Tom Brady finally, officially, retires from playing football and before he is inducted into the Hall of Fame, he will come out somewhere on the LGBTQ+ spectrum. This is an observation, not a judgment. Frankly, I could not care less, but I am in the business of making predictions.

So, I updated my results and I think I stand at +6 Units for the season on published bets. You astute readers have noted that I did not post any Week Seven bets. I got home late Friday night and could not get my act together to put out Week Seven bets Saturday morning. That does not mean I just sat on my ass…

Well, I did sit on my ass, but I made numerous in-game wagers and pulled some other trickery with Round Robin Moneyline Dog bets, by 2’s, while sitting on my ass. I will explain that some other time.

And so, maybe that is where this is going. I have yapped for a long time that the true value in sports betting is in-game wagering. The various swings that happen along the way offer inherent value. Much more so than betting the somewhat static pregame line or spread.

In fact, while writing this, I ingamed Under 61.5 in the Temple / Tulsa conflagration. Total closed at 53.5, so I got 8 points for free, because of 10 points being scored off turnovers early in the contest.

Let’s take a look at one intriguing situational spot for Saturday and see what we can conjure…

375 UCLA +6.5 – Holy shit Otter, Chip Kelly is playing his former squad! For those of you new to this, UCLA HC Chip Kelly was the HC of the Oregon Ducks, and was very good at his job. Saturday, he rolls up to Eugene with an undefeated record, playing a foe that is undefeated in the PAC12 conference (lost to Georgia but we will not hold that against the Ducks!). Here’s the deal with the PAC12, this year they are NOT playing a championship contest between divisions. They are playing a championship between the two best teams in the conference, based on regular season records…and the inevitable tiebreakers.

What a beautiful nightmare! Bruins and Ducks are both undefeated, in conference. Southern California and Utah each have a conference loss. After Saturday, either Bruins or Ducks will have a loss! And that’s the thing about the PAC12. They are a bunch of fucking cannibals. You can bet that the championship will come down to tiebreakers! Anyway, we can feast on the bones of this debacle. You do not necessarily have to pick a side on this contest, but you must be aware of how this outcome will affect seeding for the PAC12 tournament. It’s not too early to get your chips in the pot! I bet Utah Utes to win the conference prior to the season opening. If you want to back a squad, you can probably get decent odds right now because it will be a fucking mess at the end of the regular season!

For the record, without any commentary, these are my official picks for Week Eight…

Syracuse +13.5

Akron +18.5

Duke +9.0

Bowling Green +8.0

Buffalo +7.5

Rice ML -135

Ole Miss ML -120

Hawai’i +5.5

Mississippi State +22.5

Colorado +23.5

Ole Miss +1.5

Texas AM -3.0

UTEP +4.0

Peace Out