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- @skillable
Believe it or not, we are about a quarter of the way through the regular season college basketball schedule, so this is a great time to check in with our March Madness futures and see if we need to take any action. I previously wrote about this strategy in this post in the Advanced Content section. Also, our boy Joe Lunardi just updated his brackets, which gives us additional insight into what another expert thinks. Remember, I don’t necessarily expect to cash any of these futures. But, as long as I have live tickets, I can hedge against the expected win amounts. Without further ado…
100 to 1 Teams | Current Record | 12/2/18 Future Odds* | Lunardi Bracketology** |
Arizona | 6 W 2 L | 400 to 1 | Nope |
Louisville | 5 W 2 L | 300 to 1 | Next Four Out |
Kansas State | 6 W 1 L | 60 to 1 | 3 seed in the West |
Maryland | 7 W 1 L | 175 to 1 | 7 seed in the East |
North Carolina State | 7 W 1 L | 125 to 1 | 10 seed in the East |
Xavier | 5 W 3 L | 400 to 1 | Nope |
125 to 1 Teams | Current Record | 12/2/18 Future Odds* | Lunardi Bracketology** |
Butler | 5 W 2 L | 250 to 1 | 9 seed in the South |
Memphis | 3 W 4 L | 750 to 1 | Nope |
Seton Hall | 4 W 3 L | 750 to 1 | Next Four Out |
TCU | 5 W 1 L | 300 to 1 | First Four Out |
250 to 1 Teams | Current Record | 12/2/18 Future Odds* | Lunardi Bracketology** |
Houston | 6 W 0 L | 125 to 1 | 9 seed in the East |
Minnesota | 6 W 1 L | 250 to 1 | Last Four In |
300 to 1 Teams | Current Record | 12/2/18 Future Odds* | Lunardi Bracketology** |
Connecticut | 6 W 2 L | 750 to 1 | Nope |
Iowa State | 6 W 1 L | 125 to 1 | 6 seed in the East |
Loyola Chicago | 5 W 3 L | 1000 to 1 | 12 seed in the West |
Nebraska | 6 W 1 L | 150 to 1 | 6 seed in the West |
South Carolina | 4 W 3 L | 500 to 1 | Nope |
500 to 1 Teams | Current Record | 12/2/18 Future Odds* | Lunardi Bracketology** |
Davidson | 7 W 1 L | 750 to 1 | 12 seed in the Midwest |
1000 to 1 Teams | Current Record | 12/2/18 Future Odds* | Lunardi Bracketology** |
Buffalo | 7 W 0 L | 75 to 1 | 6 seed in the Midwest |
Old Dominion | 5 W 3 L | 1500 to 1 | Nope |
Okay, out of 20 futures, only six teams are currently projected to not make the tournament. I’m not really considering the Last Four In and Next Four Out teams as being definitely out – let’s just say for now they are on the bubble of the bubble. I need to keep an eye on these teams and consider looking for opportunities to bet against the future wagers I made. We still have a long way to go and changes will occur in the brackets. In the case of Arizona, Lunardi may have it wrong as, according to PAC 12 power ratings, they lead the conference. Is there a post-season ban that I am not aware of?
My future wager on Old Dominion had everything to do with this squad getting an automatic bid by virtue of winning its conference tournament. Conference play has not yet started in Conference USA, but ODU is currently rated and ranked second behind Western Kentucky (which would be a 12 Seed in the South, current odds of 500 to 1 to win the NCAA tournament). Let’s just see what happens with the Monarchs in conference play.
Now, take a look at Buffalo! I have a future on this squad at 1000 to 1. The Bulls are currently undefeated and lead the MAC. Is it possible Buffalo is this tournament’s version of Nevada or Loyola-Chicago, which both made the Final Four last year?
Stay tuned…
*Odds from William Hill as of 12/02/2018
**Joe Lunardi Bracketology Updated 11/29/2018
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