The Wipeout Game Explained

This is a very real and powerful betting concept, and I coined the phrase myself! That is why this article is here in the Advanced Content section. Be sure to use this tip. But be careful talking about it. We never want to give away our advantage.

Most gamblers bet parlays and teasers. I’m not suggesting that parlays and teasers are always wrong and bad plays. But how these exotic wagers are set up – the teams used – can often make for bad plays. As you know, to win a parlay or teaser, all plays must win (sometimes ties are allowed) for the parlay or teaser to cash. Gamblers often eschew straight bets and play only the exotics. Many times, these exotic wagers will contain an “anchor team,” which is usually a huge favorite, considered to be a “sure thing.” Or sometimes they include the most recognizable team playing that day…the Golden State Warriors come to mind.

The Wipeout Game is exactly what the name implies – that there is one game that will Wipeout everything. The straight bets, the parlays and (often) the teasers.

If you have been around sports wagering for a little while, you may have read or heard interviews with sportsbook managers who state they “need a team” to make their day profitable. What they are telling you is the team they “need” is the team that few people bet on. They need the big public favorite to lose against the spread and they much prefer the favorite lose straight up! So they “need” the team that no one is on to pull the dramatic and profitable upset – or at the very least – win Against The Spread!

The Wipeout Game identifies this lowly squad that the sportsbooks need. And we bet with the book!

Every morning I peruse the statistics offered on SportsInsights.com to get a feeling what the Wipeout Game will be. The Wipeout Game is usually one of the last games being played that night and can be anything from a college to a professional team, in football or basketball. The Wipeout Game is also valid for baseball, but as I write this, the baseball season is far off.

What I am looking for is a late game where the bettors have lined up heavily in favor of one squad or the other. I always look for this on the Spread Bet percentages and then extend it to the Moneyline bet percentages.

More specifically, I am looking for a late game that has at least a 60% / 40% spread bet split between the favorite and the dog. The greater the split (80% / 20%, for instance) the more I like it! I also love to see a similar split in the reported moneyline percentages. When I see this I call it the Double Wipeout. The phenomenon also works for Totals, but I typically prefer to bet sides in the regular season.

Gamblers are very predictable and with some accuracy we can predict they will bet into a heavy favorite and public team. The Golden State Warriors still get strong action, making them a public team, even though they are a substantially different team this season (2018-19) than last. Different in that they are not covering the point spread like they did the last two seasons. But gamblers also typically like the Lakers (LeBron) and the Celtics and any team perceived to be “way” better than the team they are playing.

Okay, hypothetically, we have identified a contest where there is a large split (at least 60 / 40) between the Spread Bets on each team. Now, we want to identify any Line Movement. What we are most looking for is Reverse Line Movement, but a Line Freeze works, too.

Go all the way back to the beginning where we dispelled the #1 Gamblers Fallacy – that the sportsbooks only interest is getting half the bets on either side of the point spread

Continue watching what happens with the line as the day wears on and we get closer to tip-off. Let’s say the game we identified earlier showed a split of 65% spread bets on the favorite at -6.5, and it is the last game of the night (typically on the West Coast) and includes a public team playing an average team.

Continue watching to see what happens to the line as more and more money comes in on the game. We like the late games because, as gamblers lose throughout the day, they will chase their losses thinking they can get it all back on this one big play. Also, this late game will be heavily bet in the parlays and teasers that are still live.

What we are looking for, hoping to confirm our play, is Reverse Line Movement or a Line Freeze (where oddsmakers don’t move the line in the face of a heavily bet side). With roughly two-thirds of all the spread bets on one side, they should move the line up from our theoretical -6.5 to -7.0 and even higher to balance the action. If they move the line down to -6.0 or -5.5 then this is the reverse of what they “should” do. Probably, some big money came in late on the underdog to move the line in reverse. When we see this, Reverse Line Movement or a Line Freeze, we make our play on the underdog, taking whatever points that are being offered.

Oddsmakers know the psychology of gamblers. And this is often the reason they set the line the way they did. Read that again – they know the psychology of the average gambler – go back and read You are the Weak and I am the Tyranny of Evil Men if you need a refresher. They know gamblers can’t get their money out of their pockets fast enough when they see a short line on a public favorite.

Then we sit back and see what happens…