Handicapping the FCS Playoffs

The Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) plays a 24-team tournament to determine the winner of its Football Subdivision. Most of us are familiar with the Football Bowl Subdivision tournament format, determined by computers and a Selection Committee and (probably) a whole lot of “voodoo.” The FCS tournament is a win and advance, lose and clean out your locker tournament. I previously wrote about Single Elimination tournaments.

While that post was specific to the MLB Wild Card single game playoff, we have similar motivation in this tournament. Which is, as I said, win and advance, lose and clean out your locker. The referenced post suggested the underdog moneyline was a great play.

As I write this, these are this weekend’s matchups, with the corresponding point spreads and television broadcast times and networks (all times Eastern):

• Weber State (-5.5) vs. Maine (Dec. 7, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
• North Dakota State (-26.5) vs. Colgate (Dec. 8, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• South Dakota State (-9.5) at Kennesaw State (Dec. 8, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN3)
• Eastern Washington (-9) vs. UC Davis (Dec. 8, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

There are not many handy resources that cover the FCS football subdivision. But we can use Sagarin to get a close approximation what the line should be. We know what the oddsmakers think, as they have put ups their lines, as referenced above. So, let’s take a look (the easiest way I have found to do this is scroll between the conferences)…

A couple things probably jump out to you – North Dakota State is VERY good. Colgate and Kennesaw State have played the “easiest” schedules.

We can now compare the Sagarin Difference with the corresponding betting lines. One thing that is very clear, aside from the N. Dakota State / Colgate line, lines are very close to the Sagarin Difference and do not seem to account for any home field advantage.

Let’s look at the Weber State / Maine contest a little closer. We can check Don Best for injuries, but with FCS schools, we typically don’t get much information, unless the QB is injured – No player injuries listed for either team.

Let’s check Phil Steele and see if he gives us any information we can use. Steele gives us an alphabetical listing of the FCS teams, with his corresponding current power rating and average power rating, over the season. Maine is listed as 100 Current and 95.45 Average. Weber State is 104 Current and 107.1 Average.

Steele provides links to the Team Pages hosted by each team, so let’s see if we can get anything from the team’s websites…

Looking at Maine first, one thing that jumps out is they have a first-year head coach. We have stated on these pages how important coaching is. I’m sure this guy is a fine coach to get his squad this far his first year, but Weber State may have the coaching advantage.

Maine has three losses on the year, one of which was a 17 – 5 loss AT FBS school Central Michigan. Prior to this contest, Maine won AT Western Kentucky. Other losses were AT Yale and AT Bill and Mary. I capitalize AT because maybe Maine has a little more trouble playing on the road, as all three losses happened on the road. Maine is traveling over 2000 miles to Ogden, UT to play this contest, from the Eastern time zone to the Mountain time zone. Offensively, Maine gains, on average, 3.2 yards per carry, and gains an average of 229 yards through the air, on the road. Okay, that’s something to go on.

Let’s get an idea what Weber State is all about. First, we know they are playing at home, with a head coach in his second year. The Wildcats suffered two losses on the regular season, AT Utah (which was to be expected) in their first game of the season, then AT Northern Arizona. At home, the Wildcats gain 3.9 yards per carry and 177 yards through the air. Wildcats Total Defense at home is 250 yards. Black Bears give up 319 yards of Total Defense on the road.

Sagarin also rates the relative strength of the conferences. Maine plays in the Colonial Conference, ranked one place higher than the Big Sky Conference.

The elevation of Ogden, UT is about 4,200 feet. The Maine squad is coming from about 125 feet elevation. Weather in Ogden is forecast to be a high of 35F and a low of 26F. Orono, ME has similar weather this time of year.

Based on this analysis, the teams are pretty close. And both teams have the exact same motivation – win and advance. But I’m leaning to the Weber State side -5.5. This contest may well come down to the Home Field Advantage the Wildcats will enjoy.