You faithful readers will likely notice I disappeared for a little while. Half of that was sulking over my Women’s World Cup Betting and Hedge Strategy, taking the ill-fated South Korea squad. Half has been handicapping the upcoming college football season and Half (shout-out to the late great Yogi Berra!) has been figuring out the best strategies for betting and hedging MLB in-game (or in-play) Live wagers.
In-game betting and hedging strategy, as I write this, seems to be the new and wild frontier of sports betting. This article (Part I of II) is specific to MLB, but there will be similar money-making in-game betting strategies in other sports.
Experts who publish in professional journals, no matter their field of expertise, typically start their research with a review of the published literature relative to their specific subject of research. For instance, if a doctor wants to write a paper on the efficacy of measles vaccinations (get your kids vaccinated people!), the doctor will typically begin his or her research with a literature review of relevant research that has been conducted and published on that specific topic.
We intrepid sports bettors do the exact same thing! So, I initiated writing this column by researching relevant articles in the field of Major League Baseball In-Play (or In-Game or Live Betting) Betting and Hedging Strategies. And as many derivatives of this topic as I could derive. Here is a sampling of my scholarly research.
The interwebs are largely devoid of good information. Sure, I found lots of articles that mentioned the subject, or tangentially discussed it as a betting strategy, but I found nothing resembling a “How To” do it guide. The vast majority of articles mentioned the subject, then referred the reader directly to their sponsoring website, where you could sign up, deposit and get down on your new betting strategy. Without any knowledge of “how to do it.” Exactly what the sportsbooks want – uninformed gamblers!
As time moves on there will be much more literature on this subject, but we aren’t really interested in other people doing it for us. There is tremendous value being the pioneer on the frontier of sports wagering and betting and hedging in-game major league baseball games is fertile ground.
The best published information I was able to find on the interwebs was this lone article. And, as you will see, it is mostly tangential to the topic of how to actually make money with this betting strategy. Let’s skip down to the specifics of what the article calls Live Betting on Baseball:
Live Betting on Baseball
Oh, baseball! If ever there was a sport made for the data analyst, baseball is it. Nine innings of math and statistics over 162 games per team per year. Whether you are a number cruncher or just a lover of America’s greatest pass-time, MLB live betting is rich with opportunities to make money.
What’s so beautiful about baseball in-play betting is you can delve into the mind of each team’s manager to predict what they are likely thinking. Then, even if you are 100% accurate in your prediction, you still need the right outcome from the battle between the guy on the mound and the one in the batter’s box.
Strategy literally changes with every pitch and so too do betting lines.
Here are a list of things to consider when making live bets for baseball:
Pitching is Everything
A pre-game line is largely based on the expectations for the game’s starters but unless the hurler is having a night for the ages, chances are each team is going to go to their bullpen at some point during the game. Has the bullpen of the team you’re planning to bet on been hot or cold recently? A hot bullpen is likely to equate to a solid bet if your team has a lead past the middle innings. If they’ve blown some saves recently, take caution.
Don’t Fear Early Deficits
If you like a heavy favorite and they are down early, check to see how much the line moves towards the underdog. If the value looks good consider getting in as the odds have shifted in your favor with many outs left on the board.
Listen to the Announcers
Whether you have access to the game on TV or can only tune in to the radio broadcast, make sure to listen to what the announcers are tracking. If one team is heating up, or if one pitcher is on/off, the broadcasters tend to pick up on it early – especially if it a player on their home side.
Have Their [sic] Been Changes in the Line Up?
Stay on top of things. The loss of a big bat on either team can shift lines and change Over/Under ranges.
That’s it for the write-up and explanation. As Looney Tunes always said – That’s All Folks! How in the world can anyone learn anything from that?
To continue reading Part II, please sign up for Advanced Content.