Beware the Trendy Bet

Success in sports betting often comes from unlikely places and even more unlikely events. Perhaps you have discovered an angle that has been working, or a trend that continues to hit. The KenPom Betting System is an excellent example. Something that is getting a lot of talk, right now, is the likelihood of the first period NHL totals going Over.

I don’t follow hockey very closely, but do bet it from time to time, usually based on a situational angle or just going contrarian when the whole betting world is on the same (wrong) side. No, this time of the year, my hands are full handicapping college hoops.

The first time, this season, I heard about the hockey betting trend of first period Overs hitting at a huge rate – about 80% at the time I heard about it – I was in an airport with a bunch of gamblers who were heading to Vegas for the weekend. The lead dog of this pack of wild-eyed gamblers could not talk about it enough and suggested I was an idiot for not knowing about it. I suggested he was probably about to understand how betting trends blindly will relieve him of some of his bankroll.

Reading the day’s news, I came across this article. The cat’s out of the bag right? Now the whole world knows, right?

The article seems to spill the beans on this trend, suggesting that it is still in effect and getting gamblers paid. The best time to bet a trend is when it starts, not after it is well known and getting very long in the tooth. Go back and read that article, again. The most important thing the author states is also the thing most gamblers will not understand. Here it is again:

Bookies are reluctant to move off 1.5 goals, so they increase the odds. Mitch Moss, cohost of VSiN’s morning show on SiriusXM, points out that games earlier in the season that might have been -160 to go over in the first period “may be -210 or -220 by the time the puck drops.”

During their current 12-1-1 streak, led by the strong goaltending of rookie Carter Hart, the over in the first period of Flyers games is just 7-7.

The last sentence tells us why this trend is an awful bet, at this point in the cycle. Sure the article says the trend is currently hitting at 73%, but if the oddsmakers are moving the juice to -220, then they are keenly aware of the trend and are charging gamblers increased juice to play the trend. Note that, specifically for the Flyers, in their last 14 contests, this trend is 7 wins and 7 losses. Let’s say you bet this trend all 14 games at an average juice of -200. For every unit you won on the 7 wins, you lost 2 units on each of the 7 losses. Pretty damn ruinous to your bankroll, huh?

The thrust is this – do not blindly follow trends. The point you finally jump in with your bankroll, may be the exact point where the trend regresses back toward the mean. Try to find these trends and angles yourself, and ride them as long as they are profitable. But also know when to jump off the train. Because that train may be headed off the track.