Tim Donaghy Revisited

Well, Tim Donaghy is back in the news. First time I ever heard this dude’s name, I was playing in a cash poker game at the venerable Golden Nugget, downtown Las Vegas, NV. It was mid-morning, full table of gamblers and I was just minding my own business, as I usually do. All of a sudden, some guy at the table announces, for all to hear, “Well that’s it! I will never be allowed to come to Vegas again!”

Most poker rooms have flat-screen televisions to entertain their players. Most poker players don’t play every hand they are dealt, so there is always plenty of time to absent-mindedly stare at a screen, any screen, when you’re not part of the hand being played.

Turns out, in this case, one of the screens was tuned to ESPN, which was, at that precise point in time, breaking the Tim Donaghy NBA betting scandal he was embroiled in. My new friend at the table, who hadn’t said a word until now, informed us that he was a Big Ten college football official, and because of Donaghy, he would never be allowed in Vegas again, if he wanted to continue in his trade. He elaborated that the Big Ten generally frowned on its officials going to Vegas, and would only stomach it during the off-season and certainly he could never be allowed to wager on sports. Any sports. In fact, he said he had what amounted to a security clearance, which was evaluated annually.

You can read all about Mr. Donaghy’s autobiographical slippery-slope into moral turpitude in his book Personal Foul. The big takeaway from his published point of view (spoiler alert) is he, himself, never fixed any games. All he was guilty of was knowing the personal biases of the refereeing crew he was assigned to, which he dutifully transmitted to his gambling pals. As his story goes, based on his insider insight, he could predict which side was likely to cover the spread. And that’s how his crew bet the games he officiated. And from all accounts, made plenty of money.

The most important thing to know about this is – the NBA agreed with Mr. Donaghy’s interpretation of how all this went down. In other words, the NBA agreed that Mr. Donaghy was not involved in fixing any games – at all. He was just a jerk who provided inside information into the most likely way the game would be called, which would be used to predict the outcome. Both Donaghy and the League agree that Donaghy never bet directly on the games he officiated. Donaghy was paid by his gangster pals when tips he provided actually cashed for his cronies. And that’s what he went to prison for, as his story goes.

This very morning (2/19/19), ESPN broke a new and improved story. Another spoiler alert if you’re not inclined to read this lengthy article, turns out Tim Donaghy DID influence the games he recommended to his gambling pals and he DID bet directly on those games.

Consider the takeaway if these allegations are true. Donaghy said he did not directly influence the games he provided tips on to his gangster pals. The NBA agreed this was true. Nothing to see here, folks!

Based on the new ESPN article, ESPN asserts these angles, and others, are not at all true. ESPN says it instructed their crack statistical staff to crunch the numbers. Of the 30 games they evaluated where Donaghy worked and (likely) provided tips on, the record was 23 wins, 3 losses, 4 pushes. These same statisticians calculated the odds that Donaghy would have randomly made calls that produced this outcome to be 6,155 to 1.

On one side, we have a convicted felon who served 15 months for influencing the outcome of NBA games. On that same side, we have the NBA, which agrees what Donaghy did was wrong, yet also agrees Donaghy did not fix any games, whatsoever.

On the other side, we have the new “facts” as researched and presented by ESPN.

So who is lying? Donaghy AND the NBA. Or ESPN?

Most importantly, what’s a bettor to do?

This is pretty important stuff for those of us who are concerned with the “integrity” of sports. States, as we all know, now have the right to decide for themselves whether or not to allow sports wagering within their boundaries. The Action Network does a fair amount of their own hand-wringing. While Action Network doesn’t come out and say it, they are really most interested in protecting this brand new Golden Goose, incubating all those Golden Eggs. And admittedly, most of us don’t want to go back to the olden times when sports wagering was illegal everywhere outside of Nevada!

As lawyers say, the “appearance” of impropriety is every bit as bad as actual impropriety. In other words, how can anyone bet on this if it can’t be trusted? Or even if we think it can’t be trusted?

Well, it can’t be trusted. Not entirely.

Yet, this won’t bother the vast majority of people who wager on sports. No matter how much ESPN wants to espouse the virtues of its reporting and the inherent virtue in sports – likewise, no matter how much the Leagues want YOU to worry about integrity –  these allegations were greeted by a great big shrug in the circles I run in. No one really cared today. And they aren’t likely to care tomorrow.

We have seen it all. Really. The bad beats add up. The “impossibility” of what gamblers just saw is yet another drop of water in the ocean. Bettors simply do not care. Perhaps legislators care. Perhaps the Leagues themselves care. But I highly doubt they care and would bet against it if I could find a “fair” line.

The bottom line is – bettors just want to bet. Gamblers just want to gamble. They don’t care one whit if the game is rigged against them, so long as they are entertained and are allowed to cash a few tickets, from time to time.

We sharps have a saying that goes like this:

You can shear a sheep many times, but you can skin him only once.

As long as the gamblers get their fix, they will continue gambling.

For those of us who handicap, well, we will just have to continue considering ALL the angles. Sure, we want integrity in sports. But if we find an angle that might suggest there is a little corruption involved, you know we will bet the fix!

Simple as that.