Week 2 Best Bets

Alright alright alright…so far so good. We have eked out a small (tiny) profit on the Best Bets thus far. We haven’t talked about juice yet, but I am planning a longer post on that topic. Anyway, if you have followed along, you haven’t lost any money AND you haven’t had to pay a tout for his picks. You are ahead of the game!

Circa Sportsbook in sweltering downtown Las Vegas, NV has been the market leader in putting up their college football lines, usually by early afternoon in the Eastern Time zone. Then, the vultures copy and paste. Likewise, copy and paste the quick line moves. But sometimes they are not so quick. I try to go through and pick off what I consider to be the best numbers. The Week 2 table shows what I have done so far. As you can see, my results varied.

Let’s talk about a few of these. I am a big fan of Service Academy football (and basketball for that matter) and follow these squads closely. Much of that has to do with living in Mountain West Conference territory for 35 years. But also because I like how competitive the Conference tends to be. I will cry real man tears when they dissolve the Conference and send the squads to the four winds to be absorbed by other conferences.

I digress…

My mantra when it comes to the Service Academies is – bet them when they are dogs, fade them as favorites. I love Air Force football and have seen more live AF football games than any other team. My daughter graduated from University of Colorado. But I am not torn here on which side to back. I’m taking all those points (+18.0) with the Buffaloes. Looks like oddsmakers got a lot of early Buffalo love and have moved the line down to 17.0. I think the line goes down even further by kickoff.

Georgia Southern is my continuing fade of Nebraska, more specifically, a fade of Scott Frost. I did not report it in the prior week’s Best Bets, because I waited until very close to gametime to take Northwestern +13.0 and North Dakota (FCS squad) +23.0 AND +32.0! Cashed all of those tickets.

We will keep fading Frost until he gives us a reason not to. Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!

In the recap of Week 1 Best Bets, I gave my rationale to bet against South Carolina Gamecocks. So, we’re going against them again, for the same reasoning. The Hogs are a good squad and are very well coached, by a guy (Sam Pittman) who knows what the spread is.

If you have questions about the others, then you can handicap them yourselves. But let me explain the Game of the Year (GOY) Lines…

Back in the day, before sports betting was legalized throughout the entirety of the Milky Way Galaxy (fact check: almost), Golden Nugget sportsbook, downtown Las Vegas, would put out early lines on college football matchups that were considered important games, or games that would have more betting interest than the average game. They did this also to drum up some business during the slow summer season, when the asphalt melts.

I have been able to find tremendous value with these early bets. The first year I bet GOY lines, my power ratings (mostly SP+) showed a large discrepancy on the Texas Longhorns. Golden Nugget thought they would be better and SP+ thought they would be worse. I bet five GOY lines against Texas. All five were winners. In fact, all GOY lines I bet that season were winners, and I always got the best number.

Look at what I got with Roll Tide and Badgie. Both better numbers than if I waited around until this week to bet them. So, Value. Look for it! And know it when you see it. I have a few more GOY lines I will put up as we get to those games. Good luck this week!

Peace Out